Dale C. S. Destin – As we approach summer, the anticipation for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on the rise. My April forecast is out, and it calls for an active or above-normal season. The prediction is for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 149.
Recall that the ACE is the universally accepted metric used by meteorologists and climatologists around the world to classify the overall activity of a hurricane season. The index takes into account the strength and duration of each cyclone during the period, and is calculated by summing the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (in knots) of each cyclone at six-hour intervals while it is at least a tropical storm. The ACE forecast for this year is 3 above the threshold for an active season, based on 1991-2020 data.
A super hyperactive season is also possible but not likely. There is a 31 percent chance of the ACE exceeding 223. Further, there is a 37 percent chance of more than 19 named storms; 29 percent chance of more than 11 hurricanes and 29 percent chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.
If the forecast pans out, this season would be the third most active since 2020, in terms of ACE. It would tie with 1980 and 1969 for the 24th most active season based on record dating back to 1851. It would also tie with 2019 and 1969 for the tenth highest number of named storms.
Safety Steps 