Introduction
Dale C. S. Destin – 268Weather has released its updated forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which continues to project above-normal activity with the potential for hyperactivity. The forecast covers the full season from June to November, including May, and is based on data available until May 18, 2023.
Forecast Details
The forecast predicts:
- 18 named storms or a range of 13 to 23
- 8 hurricanes or a range of 5 to 12
- 4 major hurricanes or a range of 2 to 6
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 153 or a range of 89 to 241
The ACE is a measure of the total energy generated by all tropical named cyclones during the season, the universal measure of the overall activity of a season.
The probabilities associated with the forecast include a 68% chance of an above-normal season (ACE greater than 152), a 24% chance of a near-normal season (ACE 75 to 152), and an 8% chance of a below-normal season (ACE less than 75).
A typical season, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) and an ACE of 123.
Looking at other forecasts for the season, most organizations are going for a near-normal season with three outliers, one of which is 268Weather. However, we are in good company with the very reputable ECMWF forecasting similarly.
Earlier predictions: https://safetysteps.org/2023/04/19/dale-c-s-destin-early-prediction-an-active-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/
Safety Steps 