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Geneva, Switzerland (WMO) βΒ El NiΓ±o continues to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climate patterns during the August-October 2026 season.
It is increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns.
Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres show that sea-surface temperature in key monitoring regions are expected to rise above 2.9Β°C above average, reaching their peak in November.
No two El NiΓ±o events are exactly alike. The effects of each El NiΓ±o event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and how it interacts with other climate variability modes.
Not all regions of the world are affected by it, and impacts may differ even within a region. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.
The next WMO full El NiΓ±o/La NiΓ±a Update will be issued in early September. Stay tuned.
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