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Dale C. S. Destin: The island-average rainfall outlook for this year continues to show a strong, clear signal toward drierβthanβnormal conditions, i.e., drought conditions.
The latest forecast indicates an 86% chance of belowβnormal rainfall (up 17%), compared with a 12% chance of nearβnormal totals (down 10%) and only a 2% chance of aboveβnormal amounts (down 7%).

In short, the guidance points to a near certainty of a drier-than-normal dry season: January to June, and a very high likelihood of a drier-than-normal wet season: July to December.
This year, from this vantage point, the best rainfall forecast (estimate) is 802 mm (31.6 in) with a 70 percent confidence that it ranges between 638 and 993 mm (25.1 to 39.1 in).

The rainfall total forecast falls in the below-normal range for the island. The rainfall could rank in the bottom two percent of the historical record, dating back to 1928.
It is virtually certain that the rainfall for the year will not be above normal or exceed 1218 mm (50 in).

Read More: https://268weather.wordpress.com/2026/05/29/updated-rainfall-forecast-for-2026-drought-to-intensify/






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