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Colorado State University (CSU): We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity. Current weak La NiΓ±a conditions are likely to transition to El NiΓ±o in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El NiΓ±o for the peak of hurricane season.
Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
We anticipate El NiΓ±o being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.
We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
Read more: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
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