05:20 AM ECT SAT, SEP 3, 2022

 …Earl continues west-northwestward and should pass north of the Leeward Islands today…

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in effect for the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. A tropical cyclone alert means that, in this case, a tropical storm is in our monitored area of concern but a watch or warning is not required, at this time.

There remains some level of uncertainty to the eventual strength, track and size of tropical storm Earl. Notwithstanding, the storm is in the vicinity and is forecast to pass just north of the islands.

The storm-force winds, which are mainly located to the north and east of the centre of the system are also forecast to pass north of the islands.

The cyclone poses an elevated/minor threat with the potential to cause limited impacts from storm-force winds and high seas nevertheless, you should be prepared to implement your hurricane disaster plan at very short notice should the need arise.

At 5 am ECT or 0900 UTC tropical storm Earl was located approximately 113 miles east-northeast of Antigua in the Leeward Islands or 211 miles east of Tortola in the British Virgin Islands.

Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday after which a turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday.

On the forecast track, the centre of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin Islands Saturday night into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts with some slight strengthening possible during the next few days. Presently, tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles mainly to the north and east of the centre.

The threat level at this time is elevated particularly for Anguilla; however, storm force winds are not expected to impact the area. Notwithstanding, any southward shift of Earl’s centre would increase the threat of tropical storm-force winds reaching, at least, some of the islands.

Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across parts of the leeward and British Virgin Islands through this weekend. 

Minor flash flooding is expected.  Strong gusty winds, especially in squalls, are also possible across portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands.

Additionally, swells from this system could produce hazardous marine conditions for beach-goers during the weekend.

Residents are urged to monitor tropical storm earl closely and be prepared to take quick action to implement their hurricane plans, if called upon to do so. The threat is minor, at this time, but it could increase.

The next advisory will be at around 11 am ECT or 1300 UTC.

Letitia Humphreys