Dale C. S. Destin | My August updated forecast for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out, and despite the July-August lull in tropical cyclone activity, it continues to call for a busy and active/above-normal season.
This is because the existing and projected atmospheric and oceanic conditions are what usually favour such seasons.
There is also still the possibility of it being super hyperactive. As of August 20, the forecast is for 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This includes Tropical Storms Alex, Bonnie and Colin.
Probabilistically, there is a 73 percent chance of an above-normal season; a 21 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 6 percent chance of a below-normal one, based on the accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE).
If the forecast pans out, this season would be the 17th most active season, on record, in terms of ACE, dating back to 1851.
Recall that the ACE is the universally accepted metric used to classify the overall activity of a hurricane season. The ACE forecast for this year has been revised downwards by nearly 14 percent to 167.
This is still 10 percent above the threshold for an active season, based on 1991-2020 data. The forecast number of hurricanes has also been revised downwards to 8, which represents a 27 percent decrease from the previous forecast.
A super hyperactive season like 2017 also remains possible, although with a slightly reduced probability. This is because there is a 39 percent chance of the ACE exceeding 223.
Further, there is a 54 percent chance of more than 19 named storms; a 29 percent chance of more than 11 hurricanes and also a 40 percent chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.