Dale C. S. Destin | The prediction for rainfall remains off-putting for Antigua for 2022. My latest updated forecast once again projected rainfall to be most likely below normal.
The most likely forecast total for the year is 1091 mm (43.0 in), up just 2 mm (0.08 in) from the previous forecast. There is also a 70 percent or high confidence of the rainfall total falling in the range of 825 to 1410 mm (32.5 to 55.5 in).
Thus far for the year, through the end of July, the rainfall total of 396.7 mm (15.62 in) is running 104.1 mm (4.1 in) below the average of 500.1 mm (19.69 in).
In other words, the total is 79.3 percent of the average or a 20+ percent deficit in rainfall. The forecast rainfall for the year will likely range between 71 and 122 percent of average, with a skew to 71.
The main reason for the below normal rainfall forecast is seemingly the near normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA).
This contributed largely to the first half of the year, the dry season – January to June, being drier than normal. Cooler than normal TNA SSTs favour suppressed rainfall conditions while the opposite enhances rainfall.
Saharan dust is also a factor in the below normal rainfall being experienced; however, there is no predictability of the dust beyond a week or two; hence, it cannot objectively be factored into the models.
It remains an x-factor that we cannot give an account for, except in hindsight. The dust is a significant rainfall suppressant.
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