Dale C. S. Destin
The prediction for rainfall remains unpromising. My latest updated forecast continues to call for most likely below-normal rainfall for Antigua.
The most likely total for the year is 1089 (42.9 in), up 9 mm (0.4 in) from the previous forecast. There is also a 70 percent or high confidence of the rainfall total falling in the range of 827 to 1405 mm (32.6 to 55.3 in).
The main reason for the below-normal rainfall forecast is the cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), during the first half of the year, which led to a drier than normal dry season – January to June.
Cooler than normal TNA SSTs favour suppressed rainfall conditions while the opposite enhances rainfall.
There is a La Niña underway, and this historically favours above normal rainfall for our area. Thus, the latter half of the year will most likely see near normal rainfall.
However, because we are so deep in drought, normal rainfall is not going to cut it. Notwithstanding, below normal rainfall being most likely, there are relatively healthy probabilities for near or above normal totals – there is hope, think rain.
Read more here: https://268weather.wordpress.com/2022/07/09/july-update-below-normal-rainfall-still-most-likely-for-antigua-for-2022/?fbclid=IwAR0dX6UpWbXDMsKG_QaqFtA52fn-8mPgklPy3Vct2iLne8YupVitLQMagFg