WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
3:45 PM ECT | FRI JUNE 24 2022

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94.

THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AT WHICH TIME IT IS FORECAST TO BE A STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HURRICANE.

AT THIS TIME, EVEN AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, THE LIKELY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

NO IMMEDIATE PREPARATIONS ARE NEEDED; HOWEVER, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 2 PM ECT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94, WAS LOCATED ABOUT 2160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION IN 5 DAYS. IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE PROBABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH TIME IT COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT OF TIME FOR UNEXPECTED CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE, INCLUDING THE SYSTEM TRACKING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND RAISING THE THREAT LEVEL.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME AND NONE IS ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND BE PREPARED FOR THE HURRICANE SEASON.

AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 9 AM TOMORROW SATURDAY OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER – DALE DESTIN