Dale C. S. Destin | The prediction for rainfall remains discouraging. My latest forecast continues to call for most likely below normal rainfall for Antigua. The most likely total for the year is 1080 (42.5 in), down 25 mm (1 in) from the previous forecast.

There is also a 70 percent or high confidence of the rainfall total falling in the range of 590 to 1695 mm (23.2 to 66.7 in).

The main reason for the below normal rainfall forecast is the current trend of cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which should last through summer (June-August). Cooler than normal TNA SSTs favour suppressed rainfall conditions while the opposite enhances rainfall.  

The year started out with a severe drought brought forward. This drought started in the winter of 2020/2021 and continues through the present. This May has been wetter than the last one; notwithstanding, it will end with well below normal rainfall. Year-to-date is drier than normal.

Further, since the deluge of November 2020, the start of the current drought, there has been 943.1 mm (37.13 in) of rainfall, for December 2020 to May 2022. This total is so far below normal that it is the second driest such period on record.

Read more: https://268weather.wordpress.com/2022/05/31/updated-prediction-below-normal-rainfall-most-likely-for-antigua-for-2022/?fbclid=IwAR3UJhmu-Z7gdHhvDqCvvyLEDBgrwlmiQifqCNu24rT-sRuBwOJwA08osCk