Dale C. S. Destin – The early forecast is for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season to be an active one or above normal. What could this mean for you? Will Antigua be affected by a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane)?
What is an active or above normal hurricane season? This is a season with the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index in the top third of the 1991-2020 dataset, or an ACE of 152 or higher.
The ACE is a metric that takes into consideration not only the number of named tropical cyclones (subtropical storms, tropical storms or hurricanes) but also their strength and duration.
Given the forecast for an active hurricane season, there is a 43 percent chance/probability of a named storm passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua or affecting (hitting of brushing) us.
This translates into a named storm return period of 2 to 3 active years or a named storm affecting us every 2 to 3 active years, on average.
Our last named storm during an active year was Tropical Storm Laura of 2020. This means statistically we are not due one this year, if the season turns out to be active, as forecast.
With an active season forecast, a named storm has a 28 percent probability of affecting us as a hurricane and an 18 percent probability of affecting us as a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher).
On average, we get a hurricane passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua every 3 to 4 active seasons and a major hurricane every 5 to 6 active seasons.