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WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
2:00 PM ECT MONDAY, OCTOBER 06, 2025

…Tropical cyclone expected to form…be prepared and monitor closely…

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to closely monitor Tropical disturbance AL95, located over the central tropical north Atlantic Ocean.

The system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, as it moves generally toward the region, particularly the Leeward Islands.

Although it is still early, confidence is increasing that AL95 could strengthen into a hurricane within four days. However, it remains uncertain whether the eventual tropical cyclone will directly impact the area.

At this time, most models, including the reliable European model, currently show a storm or hurricane passing just north of the Leeward Islands around Thursday or Friday.

Residents of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands should continue to monitor this system closely. To be safe, everyone is reminded to remain prepared for the remainder of the hurricane season.

At 2 pm ECT or 1800 UTC, Tropical Disturbance AL95 was centered about 1716 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the Leeward Islands, moving west at around 18 mph.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Formation chance through 48 hours is 70 percent, and formation chance over seven days is 80 percent. This means development is likely in the next two days and expected in the next seven.

Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings in effect for the area, at this time, but could be required in the next 48 hours. The next update will be around 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin