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WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
4:15 PM ECT SATURDAY, AUGUST 23, 2025

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL99. The system has only a slight chance of becoming a tropical cyclone and affecting the region.

There are lots of uncertainties with the development of the disturbance, since environmental conditions along the forecast path varies from conducive to non-conducive for tropical cyclone formation.

No hazards are forecast to reach the area from this system. However, interests in the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands should continue to monitor the progress of AL99. To be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 2 pm ECT or 1800 UTC, Tropical Disturbance AL99 was centred about 855 miles southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands and moving west at about 23 mph.

Based on ASCAT data, maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening could take place over the next couple of days.

Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20 percent, and formation chance over seven days is also slight at 20 percent.

Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings in effect for the area, and none is unlikely to be required.

The next update will be around 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster: Dale Destin