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Dale C. S. Destin: When it comes to rainfall for this year, it now looks increasingly likely to be wetter than normal.
The latest forecast shows the probability of above-normal rainfall has nearly doubled, jumping from 33% to 60%.
The chances of near-normal and below-normal rainfall now stand at 30% and 10%, respectively. This means the chance of a dry year has more than halved.
Forecast Details
As of now, the best estimate for annual rainfall in 2025 is 1317 mm (52 in), with a 70% confidence that it will fall within the range of 1096 to 1565 mm (43.1 to 61.6 in).
This updated forecast represents a 16% increase over the previous projection and shifts the rainfall total from the near-normal to the above-normal category.
In climatological terms, it moves from the middle third to the top third of historical rainfall totals based on the 1991–2020 climate reference period.
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