Dale C. S. Destin @268weather – 268Weather continues to forecast an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with the possibility that it could become well above normal or even super hyperactive, ranking in the top 10% of seasons since 1991 based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
This forecast spans the entire hurricane season—June to November, plus May—and is based on data available through May 15, 2025.
What’s New This Month?
There have been small but notable adjustments to the April forecast:
Despite the minor downtick in hurricane and ACE projections, the overall message remains unchanged: Prepare for a very active season.
What’s Driving the Outlook?
The main driver remains the forecast for warmer-neutral sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA). However, a high level of uncertainty still exists due to:
- The “spring barrier,” which limits model reliability for predicting ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions during peak hurricane season.
- ENSO-neutral conditions are still expected to dominate, though precise magnitudes are unclear at this stage.
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