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WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
2:30 PM ECT FRIDAY, AUGUST 22, 2025

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL99.

The system has the potential to become a Tropical cyclone and affect the region; Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the northeast Caribbean cannot be ruled out.

There are lots of uncertainties with the development of the disturbance, since environmental conditions along the forecast path varies from conducive to non-conducive for tropical cyclone formation.

No hazards are forecast to reach the area at this time, from this system. However, interests in the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of AL99.

To be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season. At 2 pm ECT or 1800 UTC, Tropical Disturbance AL99 was centred about 1400 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands and moving west at about 13 mph.

Based on ASCAT data, maximum sustained winds are around 30 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend.

Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 30 percent, and formation chance over seven days is medium at 40 percent.

Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings in effect for the area, at this time. The next update will be around 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin