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WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
5:00 PM ECT TUESDAY, AUGUST 12, 2025

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Erin. The system has the potential to become a hurricane in three days and be in the vicinity of Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the northeast Caribbean.

The best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass north of all the islands. However, further shifts to the south could bring the core of the system dangerously close to the islands late Friday and or Saturday.

Notwithstanding, it is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin might bring to the islands. Interests in the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands should monitor the
progress of this cyclone and be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 5 pm ECT or 2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Erin was centred about 1544 miles east of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands and moving quickly west at about 22 mph.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next 24 hours, but gradual strengthening is forecast to start late Wednesday.

Erin is likely to become a hurricane by Friday. The chance
of storm-force winds reaching the area has increased to near 33 percent.

Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings in effect for the area, but this could change by tomorrow, when an alert may be required.

The next update will be around 5 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin