Early 2025 Rainfall Forecast: A Toss-Up For The Year

Dale C. S. Destin: When it comes to rainfall for this year, it’s anyone’s guess at this juncture. The latest forecast shows an almost even chance of rainfall totals ending up above normal, near normal or below normal, with probabilities of 33%, 34% and 33%, respectively. In other words, there’s no strong signal pointing clearly in any direction, making…

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May 3, 2025

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Dale C. S. Destin: When it comes to rainfall for this year, it’s anyone’s guess at this juncture. The latest forecast shows an almost even chance of rainfall totals ending up above normal, near normal or below normal, with probabilities of 33%, 34% and 33%, respectively.

In other words, there’s no strong signal pointing clearly in any direction, making it one of those classic “equal chance” forecasts that reflect a high level of uncertainty.

Forecast Details

This year, from this vantage point, the best rainfall forecast (estimate) is 1136 mm (44.7 in) with a 70 percent confidence of it being in the range of 878 to 1441 mm (34.6 to 56.7 in). The rainfall total forecast falls within the near-normal range for the island.