At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next day or two.
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
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