Dale C. S. Destin – We have entered the heart of the hurricane season, August to October. Thus far, based on the accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE), the season has been three times more active than usual.
It could be one of the most active seasons on record. My updated forecast is out, and we continue to call for an active or above-normal season with it being more likely than not a well above-normal or a super hyperactive one.
The updated prediction is for 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes and an ACE of 221.
Comparing the five forecasts issued since April, there is a notable decrease in the number of named storms from 27 to 20 or 26%; however, the ACE has only dropped from 233 to 221 or 5%.
The drop is likely due to the forecast of a weak La Niña. Notwithstanding, the confidence of an above-normal season has remained very high, ranging from 87 to 91 percent.
safety steps 
Leave a comment