safety steps

This is for Antigua and Barbuda – A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the specified area in this case within 12 hours. Residents should have completed all disaster preparations and are in safe shelter.

At 800 am AST (1200 UTC), the center of tropical storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 61.9 west or about 31 miles south of Antigua and Barbuda.

Ernesto is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.

On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

The automatic station at Crabbs recently reported a wind gust of 32mph (52 km/h). Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Based upon the latest analysis and forecast, tropical storm Ernesto is passing at its closest point to Antigua with expected sustained winds between 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts possible during its passage.

Rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with potentially higher amounts are possible over portions of the islands; hence flash flooding is possible.

A flash flood watch is in effect. Residents in low lying and flood prone areas should move to higher ground and residents near slopes should guard against mudslides.

Mariners should stay in port. Seas are deteriorating rapidly and will peak near 10 feet in the next 24 hours as the storm passes.

Residents are urged to monitor the movement of tropical storm Ernesto and be prepared to take action where necessary to protect life and property. The next complete advisory will be at 1100 am ECT

Forecaster: Letitia Humphreys