Tropical Disturbance AL98 is likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto and be near or over Antigua and Barbuda on Tuesday.

Be guided by the following risks and potential impacts:

The risk from wind is medium; hence, prepare for strong storm-force winds. Hurricane-force winds are not expected but cannot be ruled out, especially in gusts.

The risk from excessive rainfall is medium; hence, prepare for flash flooding. Possible rainfall total is 75 to 150 mm or 3 to 6 inches

The risk from seas is high; hence, take action to mitigate the potential of extensive seas, swell/surf impacts. Possible seas exceeding 5 metres or over 16 feet.

The risk from storm surge is low; hence, be aware of the potential of limited storm surge impacts. Possible storm surge of 1 to 1.5 metres or 3 to 5 feet.

The risk from lightning is medium; hence, prepare for lightning strikes.

The potential impacts include the loss of life and injury; closure of the country; damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure; financial losses; fallen trees and electric powerlines; long-duration disruption to power supply, potable water, communication, transportation and other services; wind-driven waves damaging coastal structures; loss of fishing boats and other sea vessels, and loss of fishing gear; loss of crops and animals and environmental degradation.

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