Dale C. S. Destin | 268Weather continues to forecast a wetter-than-normal year for Antigua. Our updated forecast calls for the rainfall total to be above normal with increased confidence. The year is more likely than not to be among the wettest on record.
This year will most likely get around 1519 mm (60.0 in) with a 70 percent confidence of it being in the range of 1294 to 1768 mm (51 to 70 in). It is also likely that the year will be soggily wet or have well-above-normal rainfall, with more than 1534.4 mm (60.41 in).
The highest probability – 88 percent (up 6), is for above-normal rainfall; hence, the prediction for an expected wetter than normal year.
The numbers can also be interpreted as a 99 percent chance of above or near-normal precipitation for 2024. On the other hand, it is virtually certain that the year will NOT be drier than normal; the chance of this is 1 percent (down 3).
The year could also end up being super wet. There is a 51 percent chance (unchanged) of the year’s rainfall falling in the top 10 percentile of all rainfall for the data period of 1991-2020.
If this forecast pans out, it would be the 13th wettest year in the 97-year record, which dates back to 1928. If the upper end of the forecast, 1768 mm (70 in), materialises, it would be a record-breaking wet year. The wettest year on record is 1951 with 1764 mm (69.45 in).
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