safety steps

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday or Tuesday.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.

Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
2. A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.

Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

Forecaster Beven