Dale C. S. Destin – As we get closer to another summer, the anticipation for the Atlantic hurricane season is growing, perhaps more rapidly than most years. My updated forecast is out, and we continue to call for an active or above-normal season with a high chance of it being well above normal or a super hyperactive one.
The prediction is for a near record-breaking 26 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 218.
Remember that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is the globally recognized metric used by meteorologists and climatologists to assess the overall activity of a hurricane season.
This index considers both the strength and duration of each cyclone, calculated by summing the squares of the maximum sustained wind speeds (in knots) at six-hour intervals while the cyclone is at least a tropical storm. For this year, the ACE forecast is 66, which exceeds the threshold for an active season based on data from 1991-2020.
A super hyperactive season is also more likely than not. There is a notable 61 percent chance of the ACE exceeding 223. Further, there is an 83 percent chance of more than 19 named storms; a 55 percent chance of more than 11 hurricanes and a 62 percent chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.
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