Disturbance (Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two) is not likely to become a tropical cyclone but the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Southeastern Cuba continues.
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 77.7 West. The system is moving faster toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an additional acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across southeastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands Saturday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but the system’s chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
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