safety steps

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
3:25 PM ECT SATURDAY OCT 14 2023

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological services continues to follow the progress of tropical disturbance AL94, which could affect the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands late next week.

Due to the distance away and the fact that it is not yet a tropical cyclone, there is inherently high uncertainty in the eventual forecast track and intensity of al94.

Notwithstanding, at the reasonable worst-case scenario, the system poses little threat to the islands, at this time. This threat is likely to increase in the coming days. To be safe, have your hurricane disaster plan prepared and closely monitor the disturbance.

At 2 pm ECT or 1800 UTC, the centre of tropical disturbance AL94 was located near Latitude 9.5 north, longitude 32.0 west or about 2061 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands moving west at around 13 mph. A west to west-northwest track Is expected over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for further development, and a Tropical Depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next couple of days.

Based on the forecast models, the centre of what could be tropical storm or hurricane Tammy could be near the area on Friday and or Saturday. Nevertheless, it is too early to discuss potential hazards associated with the system. No tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings are in effect, at this time.

However, an alert is possible by Monday, if the system continues on its present path. Residents should continue to monitor this tropical system. All are also strongly encouraged to stay prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

The next update will be given by 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner, if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin