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WHCA31 TAPA

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WATCH STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

11 AM ECT SUN OCT 01 2023

…Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Antigua and Barbuda…

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible, in this case, in the next 36 hours.

Philippe is forecast to  pass near Antigua and Barbuda; hence, it poses an elevated threat with the potential to cause limited impacts from storm-force winds, extensive marine impacts from hazardous seas and moderate flooding, resulting in life-threatening conditions. To be safe, residents should start to implement their hurricane season plans for a tropical storm.

At 11 am ECT or 1500 UTC, the centre of tropical storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.1 north, longitude 58.7 west or about 210 miles southeast of Antigua and 230 miles east-southeast of Barbuda.

Philippe is moving toward the west at 7 mph. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, followed by a northward motion on tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles, mainly to the east of the centre.

Forecasting Philippe remains quite challenging. However, based on the best available data and analyses, the storm will possibly bring storm conditions to the islands on Monday afternoon but these possible conditions could start as early as Monday morning. If these storm conditions arrive, they will be over by Tuesday morning.

Locations that may experience the worst impacts are Barbuda, coastal areas and exposed high-elevations. Residents are urged to closely monitor Philippe and to start to implement their plans for a tropical storm. The system poses a limited threat to the islands with the potential to cause loss of life, property and livelihood.

The next advisory will be issued by 6 pm

Forecaster: Lorne salmon