safety steps

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 PM ECT SAT, SEP 30, 2023

This is for the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda, the rest of the Leeward islands and British Virgin Islands. A tropical cyclone alert means, in this case, that a tropical storm is in the monitored area of concern, and watches and warnings may be required for portions of the area in the next 24 hours.

At 5pm ECT or 2100z the centre of tropical storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.3 north, longitude 56.5 west or about 455 miles east southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Philippe is moving toward the south west near 5 miles per hour. This general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe could become a hurricane early next week. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 150 miles from the centre. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb or 29.50 inches.

On its present track, the system will be near the Leeward Islands in four days. Hence, a Tropical Storm Watch may be required for some of the islands in the next 48 hours. Residents should complete their hurricane plans and be prepared to start to implement them.

Forecasting of tropical storm Philippe remains challenging. This is especially so with respect to the forecast path. The consensus is for it to stay away from the islands. However, there are some models that indicate that Philippe could come very close to the islands.

Hence, in the reasonable worst case scenario, Philippe now poses an elevated or a minor threat to the Leeward Islands and British Virgin Islands with the potential for limited impacts from storm force winds, but greater impacts from above normal sea swells.

As a result, watches or warning may become necessary for portions of the northeast Caribbean over the next 24 hours. All residents should continue to monitor the progress of tropical storm Philippe closely and be prepared to take action to implement their hurricane season plans if it becomes necessary.

The next update will be given by 12 might or sooner if required.

Forecasters: Dale Destin/Orvin Paige/Trecy Spencer-Lake