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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

9:00 PM ECT THURSDAY SEP 07 2023

The Antigua and Barbuda meteorological services has discontinued the Tropical Cyclone Alert for Antigua and Barbuda, the rest of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands since Hurricane Lee has exited the monitored area. However, monitoring of the system continues.

Confidence remains high that Hurricane Lee will pass a safe distance away from the islands; hence, in the reasonable worst-case scenario, the system poses little to no wind threat to the area.

However, there is a high threat of above-normal swells, which have the potential to cause extensive impact and life-threatening conditions.

At 8 pm ect or 0000 UTC, the centre of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 51.5 west or about 673 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving West-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 130 mph with higher gusts.

Further strengthening is forecast and Lee is forecast to become a very powerful Category 5 hurricane in the next 24 hours.

Based on the forecast model tracks, the centre of Hurricane Lee will likely pass over 250 miles away from the area Sunday; at which time, the storm force winds are forecast to be out about 160 miles from the centre, keeping the islands safely away from the hazardous winds.

Above-normal swells are expected to start to batter mainly northern and eastern shorelines late Friday. Warnings will be issued accordingly.

Rainfall remains a challenge to predict. The best available guidance suggests that no more than 50 mm or 2 inches of rain is possible from Lee between now and Tuesday. This assessment will be updated when new data become available.

Residents should continue to monitor Hurricane Lee until it is out of the area. All are strongly encouraged to stay prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

An update will be given around 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin