safety steps

WOCA31 TAPA – TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

2:00 PM ECT MONDAY SEP 04 2023

…Tropical disturbance AL95 could pass north of the Caribbean…

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services continues to actively follow the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL95, which is still very far away, but it could be in or near the area of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands as a tropical cyclone this upcoming weekend.         

While there is a high level of confidence that AL95 will develop into a tropical cyclone, in the coming week, the forecast track remains highly unreliable due to its far distance from the islands.

However, a majority of model forecasts continue to indicate that the centre of what is anticipated to be at least a tropical storm will likely pass to the north of the islands. Hence, at this early stage, the reasonable worst-case scenario suggests that AL95 poses little threat to the Islands.

Nevertheless, it’s important to note that this assessment is subject to change as new information becomes available. To ensure your safety, we strongly recommend having your hurricane disaster plan prepared and ready. Additionally, please stay actively vigilant and monitor the progress of this disturbance closely.

At 2 pm ect or 1800 UTC, tropical disturbance al95 was located about 1898 miles East-southeast of the leeward islands moving west to west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and AL95 is expected to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

Based on the forecast model tracks, the system could be at the nearest point to the area late Friday or Saturday. At this time, it could be a hurricane. Most of the hazardous winds could stay clear of the islands but impact on the islands cannot be ruled out.

Things will become clearer with time. Please note that no alerts, watches or warnings are currently in effect for the area; however, an alert is likely by Tuesday night. Residents should continue to closely monitor tropical disturbance AL95 and ensure that they have their hurricane season plans prepared.

An update will be given around 2 pm tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin